Volatile Markets? Try Lady Gaga to Calm Down
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All Things Considered, January 22, 2009 · Phil Maymin, assistant professor of finance and risk engineering at the Polytechnic Institute of New York University, has a theory about the possible correlation between volatility on the trading floor and what’s hot on the dance floor.
He has analyzed songs from the Billboard Hot 100 using computer software and what he has found involves beat variance. Songs with a steadier beat or low beat variance seem to be hot when the market is volatile; conversely, songs with high beat variance are popular when the market is calm.
“The key linking idea is mood,” he says. “The mood of the people is probably influenced by the market.”
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Annie McKillop (Annie11) wrote:
I’ve seen a rendition of Phil’s study on Youtube. He may have used an incorrect musical term, but he obviously spent a lot of time gathering data and delineating it according to a set of criteria in a computer program.
Other studies, particularly in marketing are looking for the intangible reason why people buy or do not buy certain products at certain times. He may or may not be onto something, but I for one think it’s interesting.
Thu Jan 22 23:16:22 2009
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Matt Morris (MattMorris) wrote:
I am a professional musician, and a songwriter. I co-penned the 2003 Kelly Clarkson single, “Miss Independent”, which made it to the Top 10 in the Billboard Hot 100 – the chart mentioned in this story.
It sounds to me like Professor Maymin’s term, “beat variance” has more to do with the rhythmic complexities of the overall musical arrangement rather than just the “beat”, as that word is traditionally understood (for example; the John Legend song, “Ordinary People”, is decorated with colorful vocal accents and unexpected, jazz-like syncopations, while the Lady GaGa song, “Just Dance”, is wonderfully monotonous; almost machine-like).
With that said, I think that his study could prove incredibly useful to someone in my line of work!
Thanks for the interesting story!!
Matt Morris, Denver, CO
Songcrafting.com
Thu Jan 22 22:15:59 2009
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Kathy Johnson (musiclady) wrote:
I was very surprised at the Professor Maymin’s discussion about “beat variance” and the market’s volatility. He was very mistaken about the change in the beat from the two examples I heard. I am a music teacher and deal with beat, rhythm, pitch etc. every day.
I didn’t hear a change in the tempo of the beat during this story. What I did hear was a difference in rhythm patterns between the two songs. Beat is the pulse of the music, rhythm pertains to the long and short sounds the pitches are part of. Please Mr. Maymin consult musicians before putting out this information, it is not accurate and is offensive to me as a professional musician. I am also surprised that the reporter didn’t take time to listen to the music and/or consult a musician prior airing this story.
I concur with Mr. Neely’s comments.
Kathy Johnson, Baltimore, MD
Thu Jan 22 18:50:19 2009
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Tom Neely (Timbuktom) wrote:
The concept of “Beat Variance” sounds pretty shaky to musicians. Both of the examples you played have steady tempos and steady beats.
It appears that your non-musician banker guest is trying to address the Backbeat. He seems to be trying to build a theory around how well he hears the snare drum hits on beat two and beat four of the measures in the music.
Please do not invest any money based on his theories. He needs to learn the musical terms for what he is talking about, and then re-evaluate, and consult some musicians.
Tom Neely, Detroit
Thu Jan 22 18:17:06 2009
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